Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Week 5 - All the Right Roster Moves

Four weeks in the books folks.  Our insignificant sample sizes are rapidly morphing into trends that could end up being long term trends as nearly 1/6th of the season is now in the books for some MLB teams.  Looking at the roster moves section of the website this week shows that a lot of us (7 to be exact - 6 got players and Uncle Jimmy gave it a good try...also 7!!!!) thought that there were some players on the roster that needed to be turned into chum swirling in the shallows of our favorite ocean or tropical sea (mine's the Lakshadweep Sea for those of you wondering). 
Jonah Keri over at Grantland mentioned yesterday in his weekly MLB rankings called "The 30," that the average MLB playoff team in the post apocolypse (aka wild card) era is 14-11 (.560 winning percentage) through their first 25 games.  Good news for those Brewer fans in the crowd.  Obviously, a great start doesnt guarantee a playoff birth, but these early season games count for just as much as the late season ones in the standings.  By that logic, Bob's AutoTrackers would be a virtual lock for a playoff spot with their current .667 winning percentage.  Lucky for us, we fake gamers have a bit more control over our rosters than a real MLB GM does and we can change the fortunes of our team fairly quickly with a couple of smart roster moves.  Of course, we can also torpedo our seasons with a couple of ill timed ones.  Take, for example, my pick up of Devin Mesoraco last week.  To get him, I dropped Jason Castro and moved Meso into the lineup for this week.  Well, Devin hit the DL early in the weekend leaving me without a catcher for the upcoming week.  He gets a very special ass hDLe spot in my heart.  To make matters worse (or better, depending on how you feel about me) Castro put up a decent week last week and seems to be remembering what it takes to me a MLB catcher.  Hopefully some of these moves work out better than that one.
So far in the roster moves, I have been focusing solely on who is being grabbed, not who is being tossed back into the waiver wire abyss.  This week, we're going to change that up a bit.
 
 
SP Martin Perez - $7 - Mark Baker Hitless Bastards - Drop SP Jered Weaver

This one is pretty simple and it looks like a few of us agreed, as Zach and Tom also tried to get Perez.  Perez has thrown 26 consecutive scoreless innings, including back to back complete game shut outs against the ChiSox and The Juggernaut Jose Abreu and the A's and Coco Crisp's hair, which by the way is the best Afro in the league since Oscar Gamble and Bake McBride.  Perez isnt striking many guys out, but his groundball % is amongst the tops in the league and he is tied to a solid lineup and great bullpen.  Weaver, on the other hand, has seen declines in his K rate and "good pitcherness," which isnt a real stat thats tracked but should be.  He has also seen a rise in his HR/fly ball rate and a massive dip in velocity.  Basically, he is turning into Jeff Weaver, and no one wants to own a Jeff Weaver.


OF/1b Chris Colabello - $5 - Les Moles - Drop OF Alex Gordon
I was wondering when, in a league with so many Twins fans, Colabello was going to get picked up.  Colabello is off to a fantastic start, knocking in 27 runs so far and is a large reason why the Twins offense has been able to score more runs than they were expected to score.  Colabello is a classic "Can he keep this up" guy.  After playing college ball at D2 Assumption, he wasnt a huge prospect and there were only modest expectations around him as recently as the beginning of this season.  By dropping Gordon, a former college player of the year and first round pick (second overall) with an All Star appearance last year, Tom thinks Colabello has staying power.

OF Eric Young - $5 - Les Moles - Drop OF Torii Hunter
I'll be honest. This one has me scratching my head a bit. EY Jr. can't hit for contact (career .250 average, .216 this year), and can't hit for power (7 career HRs in 1400 PAs, 4 of which were in Colorado) and he is 29 years old, so he isn't exactly trending upward.  What he does have is speed, speed, and more speed, and, for the time being, a starting job with the Mets.  If you were looking for speed, Tom, you got it. 


RP Will Smith - $2- Les Moles - Drop SP Joe Kelly
Any move that removes an evil Cardinal from our lives and adds the Fresh Prince of Bel Aire is a winner in my book.  Fake Capt Hiller is a Brewer and a member of Project Mayhem.  If someone finds a way to pick up Kid 'N Play, they automatically win the league...every year, forever.

SP/RP Jesse Chavez - $2 - Les Moles - No Drop
Tom...stop monopolizing the Roster Moves section.  Seriously.  Remember last week, in the power rankings, when I mentioned that you were not that far away from being competitive with the top teams and that you were due for a rebound and then you went out and trounced John?  And then you blew up your team?  Anyways, Chavez is another, "Do you trust him to keep this up" guy.  While he definitely wouldnt be the first pitcher to find success in Oakland after moderate success elsewhere, he also wouldnt be the first to struggle after going through the league a time or two.  I love the dual eligibilty so I whole heartedly support this pickup, but Chavez might turn back into a pumpkin before the All Star break.

C Carlos Ruiz - $2 - Mark Baker Hitless Bastards - Drop OF Kole Calhoun
This is the Devin Mesoraco special.  Even though I hate Kold Calhoun with the fire of 1000 suns, I would have prefered to keep him on the roster.  With so many guys on the DL and no catcher, someone had to go.  Ruiz is roughly 2039 years old and has been in MLB since the dawn of time itself, but he is a decent catcher with moderate contact skills and a little pop.  He is a stop gap at best.  I'm putting the over/under on how many times he causes me to cry myself to sleep at 2.5.  Take the over.

RP Brett Cecil - $1 - Les Moles - Drop RP Joe Nathan
I thought we were done with this Tom?  Are there any more?  Did you also fire your Momager?  Cecil is striking everyone out this year (nearly 2 per inning), but hes also walking batters like hes trying to impress Brandon Morrow.  Somehow, he is also giving up nearly a hit an inning.  His stat line looks like the buffet at OCB, theres a large range of options and your not quite sure how good its going to be on any given night.

OF Charlie Blackmon - $1 - Backyard Superstars - Drop OF Curtis Granderson
Granderson is pretty much done and has been for about a season and a half. But at least it isnt like his team owes him $60 million between now and the end of 2017.  Yikes, I feel sorry for Mets fans.  Blackmon is the face of the early season All Stars.  Blackmon is in his 4th season in the bigs and has opened on a 389/436/644 tear.  That line has come down in the last couple weeks, as it will do since Blackmon isnt vintage Ty Cobb, but it is still surprising it has taken this long for him to be rostered.   There are definite signs that Blackmon has turned the page as a hitter in his age 27 season.  He hals already walked as many times and stolen as many bases as he did last season in 150 fewer PAs.  His 2013 was much better than I remember it being as he hit 309/336/467.  Add the increased walk totals and the stolen bases and you have yourself a fantasy baseball starter.  Blackmon may very well never recreate what he has done in the first month of 2014, but he doesnt need to in order to be a useful player.  He just needs to keep hitting in front of CarGo and Tulo and leading the people of Colorado to free tacos.

SP Yovanni Gallardo - $1 - Backyard Superstars - Drop SP Clay Buchholz
It was only a matter of time before Kyler drank the Gallardo Kool-Aid the way Yovani drinks Blatz after games but before driving home.  Gallardo is off to a fine start, but the 1.91 ERA is a bit misleading as to how good hes been.  Basically, the advanced stats say he is the same pitcher he was in 2011 but with a much lower K rate (9.0 in 2011 vs 6.0 this year).  That's not a staff ace, but it is a solid pick up.  And...its lightyears better than what Clay Buttholz has been doing this season with his 1.75 WHIP through 5 starts (25 innings).

SP,RP Alfredo Simon - $1 - Zach"k" Attach"k" - Drop RP Sergio Santos
B-R tells me that Alfredo Simon was born Carlos Cabrera, which obviously makes sense.  Simon was a useful bullpen arm last year and has made the Jesse Chavez transition to the rotation with decent results.  He has thrown 4 games, 27 innings and allowed only 26 baserunners.  His low ERA is likely a bit of a mirage as he has only struck out 17 guys and his FIP is a full 2.5 runs higher.  What is it with the Toronto pitching staff?  Santos has 5 saves and has thrown 8 innings.  He has struck out 15!  He has also walked 8 and given up 7 hits and thrown 3 wild pitches.  He's apparently extremely difficult to make contact against, but if you do it'll be a hit and theres a 1 in 3 chance he will walk you anyways.

RP Kyle Farnsworth - $1 - Zach"k" Attach"k" - Drop RP Jim Johnson
Farnsworth is the new Mets closer, taking over for Papa Grande, who took over for Bobby Parnell who I am pretty sure took over for John Franco.  This isnt the Farns that we Cub fans remember coming into MLB back in the late 90s striking everyone out and body slamming people because he could.  This is a kinder, gentiler Farns.  One who doesnt strikeout a batter an inning anymore, but doesnt walk a batter an inning either.  Farns should do just fine whenever the Mets can get a lead to the 9th.  Johnson's run as a dependable reliever ended last season even though he racked up 50 saves.  The under the hood numbers showed a steep decline which has come out full force this year. 

SS Chris Owings - $1 - Zach"k" Attach"k" - Drop SS Brad Miller
This makes me a bit sad as I was full on the Brad Miller bandwagon to start the season and I think that I might be the last one on it.  When your team decides that Willie Bloomquist is a better option, even just for a day, you are reaching the low point.  Owings is a decent player who showed great contact skills with some power and some speed in AAA last year but has yet to see either of those things manifest in the bigs.  A SS with potential to hit 300 with 15 HRs and 15 SBs would be an asset to any fantasy (or real) team.  Owings may not get there this year, but could be a solid keeper for future seasons.

RP Chris Perez - $1 - MWP Masters - Drop Papa Grande Jose Valverde
The Grand One earned his demotion from the closer's role with a 3 game stretch that featured Valverde throwing 3 innings and striking out 3, but giving up 8 runs on 6 hits (4 HRs) with 2 walks.  Talk about imploding.  We thougth Jim Johnson was bad. Luckily for John, those 3 games were stretched over a 2 scoring week period and 3 of the runs were unearned.  Chris Perez is still wearing an Indians jersey on his Yahoo player page and I was 83% sure that he missed last year with some sort of injury.  Looking at his stats from last year, I assume he wishes this as well.  Perez has bounced back as the bridge man to Kenley Jensen in the Dodger bullpen, a spot that should get him plenty of holds as the season continues.

RP Ryan Cook - $1 - Merry Tyler's Moor All Stars - Drop Jason Grilli
Grilli hit the DL and Tyler tells him to hit the street.  Since missing 2010, Grilli has been an entirely different pitcher than he was earlier in his career.  He has struggled so far in 2014, but it wouldnt surprise me to see him bounce back after his stint on the DL is over.  Cook has been an unsung hero in the Oakland bullpen for the past 2 seasons.  His current .080 batting average against should correct itself, but so should his current walk rate of nearly a batter per inning.  Cook should be a decent Project Mayhemer.

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