Return of the Mack

I know that I have been absent.  I know that it has caused you a great deal of pain and suffering.  I know it has caused me a great deal of pain and suffering.  But let's move past it together.  Let's remember the good times, and look forward to when those good times will come again.

Ok, enough of that crap.  There have been several times this season where Kyler and I have had lengthy email exchanges that could have turned into blog entries, but we were selfish and kept it between us, but not today.  Today I am having fun with stats and I felt the need to share:

1-      Did you see the article about the Reds using a rookie starting pitcher in 59 straight games and they plan to finish the season with them, so it will be like 64 or something?  And that when the played the Brewers earlier this month, both teams started rookies in all 3 games and it was the first time both teams used rookies to start every game of a 3 game series in MLB HISTORY?  Awesome.  Its a bold move Cotton, but it could very well pay off in a way that a team actually trying to win games wouldn't.  By seeing all of these young guys against MLB hitters, the Cincy front office has a decent idea whether or not they will be a useful option in the future.  Not a bad use of a lost season and certainly better than something like trotting Matt Garza until September.

2-      The Twins Eddie Rosario is having a pretty amazing season, for several different reasons.  He has pulled of the MLB version of the triple double (although I think I am the only one in the world that calls it this) – double digits in 2b, 3b and HR (it is typically fairly rare, but this year there is a huge spike) with 18, 15 and 12 respectively and he has hit .270 with a .463 slugging, both respectable, especially for a 24 year old getting his first taste of MLB action.  His 114 Ks in 434 ABs is a little concerning, but, again, he is young.  None of these things is the best thing about his season.  That would be his 14 walks.  Yup, he has hit 448 times, and has more 2bs and 3bs than walks.  Swing away Eddie, swing away.

3-      Something called a Paulo Orlando (KC) one ups Eddie.  Paulo (I don’t know why, but I love saying this name, and it always comes out as “POW-low”) has only hit 236 times, but has 5 walks compared to 14 2bs, 6 3bs and 7 HRs.

4-      Almost starting 2b for the AL All-Star team Omar Infante might have them both beat for sheer awesomeness.  Infante has batted 449 times this year, and taken 4 balls in exactly 9 of them.  That isn’t a typo, there isn’t a 1 missing from before the 9.  He actually walked twice in the game on May 1, but turned in zero walk MONTHS in April (64 PAs), June (92 PAs), and September (only 17 PAs), including an amazing 128 PA stretch without a free pass (which ended when the Twins Ervin Santana walked him on 4 pitches leading off an inning…seriously Ervin?  The guy goes more than a ¼ of the season without taking a walk and you cant even give him the courtesy, get me over fastball?  Its not like he’s going to hit it out.  I am fairly certain that Omar would struggle to hit 10 HRs if he faced a season’s worth of get me over fastballs).  Even notorious anti-walker legend Jeff Francoeur never managed to walk this little. 

 In fact, no one has walked this little in this many plate appearances with this little power since SS Alfredo “Sauce” Griffin walked 4 times in 441 PAs back in 1984 (4 BB was the fewest in 440+ PAs since 1909, when Brooklyn Superbas 2b Whitey Alperman walked twice in 468 times to the dish).  This is actually more astonishing to me than anything that Bryce Harper has done this season.

5-      No one in MLB stole more than 11 bases this year without being caught, Denard Span and Matt Duffy (SF version).

6-      Dee Gordon was caught stealing 18 times.  Only 33 other players stole at least 18 bases.

7-       Supposed fast person, Peter Bourjos was caught stealing as many times as definitely fast person Billy Hamilton, 8.  Hamilton led MLB with 57 steals while Bourjos came in slightly behind with 5.

8-      No one walked more than 100 times while striking out less than 100 (only Jose Bautista did it in /2014);106 batters have struck out more than 100 times

9-      Only 2 players who had more than 300 plate appearances failed to hit at least 1 HR, Cincy C/1b Brayan Pena and ATL OF Michael Bourn.  Even 2045 year old Ichiro hit 1 this year (also, prove he hasn’t been around since the time of Jesus.  I’ve seen the last supper painting and I am pretty sure one of those guys is Ichiro).

Something is missing here...

10-  Former 3^rd overall pick, Seattle C Mike Zunino a mind numbing .174 over 386 plate appearances before getting sent down to work on his swing.  In his place, the Mariners played Jesus Sucre, John Hicks, Steve Baron and Wellington Castillo (who they traded to the DBacks for Mark Trumbo and Vidal Nuno).  Sucre hit 124/168/195 in 127 PAs.  Hicks hit 065/094/097 in 33 PAs.  Baron hit a Yanger-esque 000/000/000 in 11 PAs.  Castillo hit 253/315/502 with 17 HRs in 289 PAs in Arizona.
I wanted to see how bad the Mariners catchers hit this year, so I mashed them all together.  What you get is a big steamy pile of 152/204/257 with 12 HRs.
Side note on Sucre…he currently has an OPS+ of 3.  (Crash course refresher on OPS+ -- 100 is a league average player.  110 means the player is 10% better than league average, 90 means a player is 10% worse than league average.  Small sample sizes can produce some pretty wild swings so generally, anything under 100 PAs isn’t very telling of a true ability level.)  Sucre has been 97% worse than league average!!..and it’s over 127 PAs.  A couple of comparison points-  Infante, OPS+ 49.  Michael Bourn of the 0 HRs, OPS+ 64.  Bryce Harper, crusher of souls, destroyer of Jonathon Papelbon, OPS+200 (I was really hoping that he would be at 197, so I could say that he was as much better than league average as Sucre is worse).  It gives me near endless joy that his name literally has suck in it…not Garrett Richards type joy, but still joy nonetheless.

11-   Somehow, Mike Zunino didn’t even have the worst season by a player with over 300 PAs.  That distinction lies with Tampa’s Rene Rivera and his 179/215/277 line in 317 PAs.  Rivera was a solid catcher in 2014 for the Padres (I am pretty sure he was even rostered in fantasy for a while by someone) despite never being particularly good at baseball before that.  He was part of the Rays-Wash-Padres trade that ended with Stephen Souzaphone being mildly interesting in Tampa, Wil Myers playing terrible CF in the Whale’s Vagina and Joe Ross and Trea Turner looking like future All-Stars in the Nation’s capital.  Looking back on that trade, there is a chance Tampa comes out OK if one or two of the minor leaguers they got ends up being useful, but its hard not to say that San Diego might as well have lit itself on fire (which could actually be said about their entire season) and that Washington clearly came out as the winners of the deal.  This would be meaningful if Washington didn’t have an amazing team every year that everyone thinks is finally going to break through only to have them choke it away (sometimes literally) repeatedly. 

12-  Things I hate about WAR-

a.       It doesn’t make any damn sense.

b.      At the top and bottom, there is clear correlation to good players and bad players, but in the middle it is a jumble of make believe.  This is offensive WAR, btw, which is the most easily understood version (dWAR is quite literally made up of unicorn poop).

c.       oWAR tells us that Kyle Schwarber, 1.8 WAR, (I have missed so so so many Kyle Schwarber jokes) and his 247/357/502 line over 219 ABs is less valuable than Zach Cosart, 2.0 WAR, and his 258/310/459 line over 194 ABs.  Cozart has 7 fewer HRs and 21 fewer walks.  They both have 3 SBs and 3 CSs, so there’s no explanation there.  Cosart has 11 points in BA, but trails by 47 points of OBP and 43 points of SLG.  There is not a single world in which I say Zach Cosart has been a better hitter.  Maybe if you include defense, you could say that Cosart plays a tougher position, so those losses in OBP and SLG are acceptable.  I am not sure I would agree, but you could still justify it…but this doesn’t use defense…at all.  If someone has an explanation, please tell me.  And it better be better than “Cosart doesn’t strike out as much” because if that is what it is, then WAR needs to go back in the can.

d.      All that being said, Danny Santana shows up as the least valuable player in the Majors this season, regardless of PAs.  He was 2.3 wins worse than the average minor league call up with the bat, and the dWAR unicorn poop says he was another 1.1 wins worse than the average minor leaguer in the field.  That is terrible, and awesome because I had it out with a bunch of Twins fans in the offseason about Santana.  I was told repeatedly that he was going to make a great SS and that they weren’t going to have to worry about SS for the first time since JJ Hardy.  I didn’t feel that was correct…and, it turns out, I was pretty much right.  And I love being right.

          Anyways…I will return again next week for the dramatic World Series recap, and then again for the Tater Tot Awards for Fantasy Baseball Playing Gentlemen and the Players Whom they Own…But Not Like That, and then again for some proposed changes for the 2016 season…and maybe a little bit in between.

 

Until then, stay funky, stay fresh.