Friday, August 29, 2014

Week 20 ass hDLes -

Happy Friday Tot Heads.  Uncle Jimmy sent this little nugget of awesomeness to me today and I have to share. The Jesus Montero Ice Cream Sandwich Incident.  I'm gonna go wander off on a couple of things on this because it is an otherwise pretty slow day in the Tot League.  Occasionally baseball players (and scouts) are not just ass hDLes, but actual ass holes.

First off, for those of you who dont remember Jesus Montero, he was a one time NYY top catching prospect (and #3 in all of baseball coming into the 2011 season according to Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus) who was traded to the Mariners for Michael Pineda (there were a couple others involved, but they sucked before the trade and havent done anything to change that since).  In 2010 with the AAA Scranton Wilkes-Barre Yankees, Montero hit 289/353/517 with 21 HRs while playing exclusively behind the plate and throwing out nearly 25% of baserunners...as a 20 year old.  Read those stats again and think about what you were doing when you were 20 (I can barely remember that long ago).  He followed that up by hitting 288/348/467 with 18 HRs (in 41 fewer plate appearances than 2010, so he basically had almost the same season) but saw his CS% slip to 20%.  He was rewarded with a September Cup of Coffee which he used to build his hype even more...hitting 328/406/590 with 4 2bs and 4 HRs in 69 plate appearances.  Montero was the stuff career baseball people tell their grandchildren about.  He was a power hitting catcher whose batting average wouldnt destroy his value (the anti-Mike Zunino, if you will) and who also wasnt a turn style who would let fast baserunners run at will against him (this was always the knock on Mike Piazza).  Basically, many in baseball viewed Montero as the next coming of Piazza with the bat who would be slightly better behind the dish.
This one isnt going to have the distance, folks.
The fact that he was traded for Pineda should speak to the expectations many around baseball had for him.  Pineda was coming off a 2011 season in whish he had thrown 171 innings with 173 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP as a 22 year old rookie.  Oh yeah, and he is 6'7" tall, weighs 265 pounds and is a genuinely terrifying physical presence.  It appeared as though the Mariners were going to send a 1-2 punch of King Felix and Pineda at the AL West for the next decade and that they were going to be very effective in doing so.  I remember thinking at the time that the Mariners were nuts to make the trade.  You dont trade someone who has proven themselves at the MLB level as an Ace caliber pitcher for a minor leaguer and expect it to turn out well, even if it is a minor leaguer who everyone thinks is going to be the next big thing (look at the track record of trades involving a MLB player for minor leaguers...they almost always end up in favor of the team acquiring the MLBer...this does not make me more pessimistic about the Cubs trading 2/5ths of their starting rotation for a mop up pitcher and 2 prospects...not at all).  Anyways, at the time people thought it would be a win-win.  The Mariners were having trouble getting free agents to want to sign there (which is why they paid Robby Cano roughly the equivalent of the GDP of Greece to sign with them last winter) and needed an impact bat (as a team in 2011, their OPS was 16% below league average including 81 starts for Chone Figgins, who hit .188/241/243 for an OPS+ of 40) and the Yankee starting rotation had some question marks following the departure of AJ Burnett and Bartolo Colon after the 2011 season.
Now with real pine tar on the neck and wrist!
From there, it all went to shit in a hurry.  Pineda tore the labrum in his right shoulder sometime during Spring Training before the 2012 season and was shut down for good in April without having thrown a regular season pitch for the Yankees.  He missed all of 2013 as well, but started 2014 off well before re-injuring himself amidst multiple pine tar incidents (which we have covered before).
Montero played the entire 2012 season with the big team in Seattle as a 22 year old, but regressed in every possible way (or so I thought until today) and his defense became so untennable that the Mariners turned him into a full time DH...though calling his 260/298/386 line a "hitter" might be stretching the definition a bit.  He did hit 15 HRs, but only walked 29 times in 553 plate appearances.   He got worse in 2013.  He got only 110 plate appearances with the big team, hitting 1 HR and putting up a 208/264/327 slash line for an OPS 32% worse than league average.
In 2014, he reported to camp fat (like 40+ pounds fatter than the Mariners expected) and alternated between injured and ineffective (though he has been decent in AAA), which brings us to the present.
If you havent yet, go read the article that I linked.  I'll wait.
Welcome back to those who left.  Thanks to those who stayed.  First off...holy fucking balls man.  How much would you have paid to be in those stands to see this epic showdown which culminated in a flying ice cream sandwich?  $100? $200? $0.25?  There are so many questions...why was a Mariner's scout heckling his own player?  And why take it to the "I'm going to send that guy a ice cream sandwich in the dugout because I think he's fat" place?  Why did Montero get mad? Ice cream sandwiches are delicious; I would have been stoked if someone sent me one when I was playing.  It would have been like treat time after the game in little league.  Why did Montero go nuts and go after the scout with a bat? And why. oh why, did Montero have to harm that defenseless ice cream?  Did the ice cream hit the target or was some innocent 8 year old girl victimized?  I am not sure the world will ever know, but I am pretty sure that both the scout and Montero put nice big nails in their respective careers with this one.  That scout should never be let near another potential player, which, you know, makes it hard to scout them.
 Montero enters the Carl Everett/Milton Bradley zone for players whose mental make up made them...we will call it "difficult" to employ...only Everett and Bradley were certifiable big league hitters in addition to being certifiable crazy pantses...and Montero's career OPS is 4% worse than average (it should be much worse but it isnt due to his insanely good first 69 plate appearances).  I seriously cannot stop imagining Montero (in full catcher's gear..even through I know he wasnt playing in this game, its way more fun) trying to climb the railing next to the dugout but being held back by teammates until he finally gives in and as a last gasp of rage throws the ice cream sammie which (in my imagination) misses the target by 8 rows.  For this week (and probably for life)...Montero gets the real ass hole tag.

On to the fake ass hDLes-

1b,2b Daniel Murphy - BySs - Right Calf Strain
Where I come from, we call these cramps.  Murphy's addition to the DL could very well send Kyler's team to the brink as he doesnt have another 2b on the roster and wont be able to get one until week 1 of the playoffs.  With BySs only 3 games up on the Dust Bunnies for the last playoff spot, missing a 2b, especially one as productive as Daniel Murphy has been is going to leave a pretty sizeable gap in Kyler's hitters production.  There could be a Scooter Gennett sighting in the Tot League for the playoffs...and that makes me almost as happy as imagining Jesus Montero throwing deserts.

OF Shin Soo Choo - ZAttack - Left Elbow Bone Spurs
Choo is out for the year following the decision to surgically remove the chips in his elbow.  That leaves Zach in a bind, but not one like Kyler has, as Matt Kemp can slide into Choo's position (and has on several occasions this year because Choo has sucked it something awful for the majority of the season).  This should have little to no impact on Zach chasing a playoff berth or performing in the playoffs.

THE ENTIRE MARK BAKER HITLESS BASTARD TEAM
So...heres the deal.  MBHB was 11 games up on the 7th spot this week, a virtual lock for the playoffs.  And then they went all 2011 Boston Red Sox/Atlanta Braves.  With 3 days left in the week, we are chasing 11-1 with a matchup with Dusty's Bunnies awaiting in the last week of the season.  The possibility of entering next week's matchup being up only 2 or 3 games on the last playoff spot is suddenly very real.  The epic collapse of the 2014 Hitless Bastards may very well end up the subject of a 30 for 30 short film called, "When Ice Cream Sandwiches Attack."

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

week 21 waivers -#Filthnandez

So Uncle Jimmy, in his never ending quest to get me to join the Twatter, sends random texts that contain hashtags and some short phrase on the daily.  I am pretty sure that it started with #SpringerDinger, but it has now evolved into #BaezBomb, which I get every single time Javier Baez hits a homerun (who would have thought that is what it meant?) and with the Cubs calling up OF (and Bob's ATer) Jorge Soler, I imagine that #SolerPower is going to be in my very near future.  <<Side note, if there arent Soler Power T-Shirts with a picture of the sun shining on Jorge Soler holding a bat out extended, then the entire Cubs marketing department needs to be immediately fired. This needs to happen like today.>>  This morning I had a text from Jim before 7 am saying "I was hoping for #Filthnandez, but alas, outbid."  So, in honor of Jim, I will be creating a # for each pick up this week because I am a huge gomer.  And since I already ruined the surprise, we will start with:

SP Jose Fernandez (#Filthnandez) - $33 - Backyard SuperStars - drop 1b Joey Votto
For $33, Kyler got a 22 year old pitcher who has been one of the most dominant arms in the entire MLB universe over the past two years (when healthy), went for a completely justified $46 at auction at the beginning of the season, but one who is going to be coming off Shommy Shon surgery and who may or may not be ready to start 2015 with the big boy team.  Looking at the other pitchers who went in the $33ish price range during the auction (Cliff Lee $34, David Price $36, Stephen Strasburg $35, Chris Sale $35, Justin Verlander $35), Fernandez fits in well and has argueably the highest upside of any of them.  To be honest, I am surprised that more people were not in on the Fernandez bidding, as only Kyler, Uncle Jimmy and myself placed bids (Zach?  Kevin?).  If he comes back healthy, Fernandez projects to be a multiple Cy Young award winning pitcher beginning as soon as 2015.  Votto has been arguably the biggest disappointment in MLB this season.  Votto went for a sky high $41 at auction, in large part due to his contact and on-base skills with a moderate amount of power and large number of anticipated doubles.  As it turns out, he has been unable to stay healthy and when healthy has been plain terrible, hitting 255/390/409 with 32 runs 23 RBI and 1 SB in only 62 games (at least he has been able to keep walking, though I dont know why anyone would walk him this year).  Now each passing day increases the chances that he will be shut down for the season with a quad injury as he has yet to resume baseball activities and the Reds 10 games off the division pace (only 5.5 off the second Wild Card). 

SP, RP Mike Fiers (#WeDidntStartMikeFiers <sung to the tune of We Didnt Start the Fire by Billy Joel>) - $4 - MBHB - drop SS/3b Xander Bogaerts
Not many people know what to make of Mike Fiers...the Brewers certainly dont.  In 2012, Fiers was one of the top pitchers in the NL over the first half of the season before melting down on Aug 13 at Colorado.  After that, he wasnt the same pitcher, putting up quality starts in only 2 of his last 9 turns and seeing his season long ERA jump by nearly 2 runs to finish at 3.74.  In 2013, he suffered from ineffectiveness and injury and threw only 22 innings in the big leagues.  Demoted to AAA to start 2014, Fiers regained whatever Mojo he had at the beginning of 2014, dominating AAA hitters before earning the call to the bigs on June 10.  After hanging in the pen for a few games, he took the ball on 6/24 and gave up 2 runs in 4 innings against the Nats.  It was his worst start so far, as in the following 4 starts have yielded no more than 3 hits or 2 earned runs or 1 walk in any game with 32 punchouts over 28 innings.  Bogaerts has had a season to forget for the BoSawks.  He is hitting 223/293/333 on the season and has never really gotten going, despite being a regular in the Boston offense all season long.  After watching the 2013 post season, I have little doubt that Bogaerts will be a star in MLB, but the 21 year old is proving that he might not be ready for the big time just yet.

SP Archie Bradley (#GoldenArchie) - $3 - BySs - Drop SP/RP Alfredo Simon
Bradley is one of the top 10 prospects in MLB according to just about every prospect source available.  He has battled injuries this year that have pushed his arrival back from mid summer to likely September, but he has top of the rotation, MLB ace type stuff.  The drawback on him is that he has yet to control his pitches as well as his coaches would prefer.  Still, had my entire pitching staff not hit the DL at the same time, I would not have thought of dropping Bradley a couple of weeks ago.  Kyler and stash him in the NA spot for now and use the rest of the season to decide how he wants to move forward.

RP Kelvin Herrera (#TheOtherKCMasterpiece) - $2 - Bob's ATers - Drop RP Sean Doolittle
This is a case of Bob not being confident that Sean Doolittle is going to be back before the end of the fantasy season and needing a warm body to plug into a lineup.  Herrera has thrown 52 2/3 innings with 1.51/1.17 ratios and 46K.  He is the guy that bridges from the starter to Wade Davis/Greg Holland in KC's quest to turn every game into a 6 inning contest.

C/1B/OF - Stephen Vogt (#Vogt4President) - $2 - Bob's ATers - Drop C Yan Gomes
This is a case of Bob not being confident that Yan Gomes is going to be back before the end of the fantasy season and needing a warm body to plug into a lineup.  It helps that this warm body qualifies at 3 positions and is hitting 320/348/507 on the season, even if that slash line is well down from its peak 361/387/544 at the end of June.

1b Kennys Vargas (#TheyKilledKennys) - $2 - KIODL - Drop 3b Pedro Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez led the NL in HRs last year with 36 and averages 29 HRs for every 162 games played in his career.  Yet, somehow he has a career OPS under .800 and his OPS is just 6% better than league average for his career.  His career OBP is an incredibly awful .308 and this year he came down with Chuck Knoblauch disease (a complete inability to throw the ball to the first baseman) which eventually necessitated his move from 3b to 1b because the team could not afford any more throwing errors (he has 25 errors in 823 innings, more than an error every 4th game), yet his .924 fielding % is in line with previous seasons in his career.  Basically, all Alvarez can do is hit the ball a long way...when he happens to make solid contact with it.  I watched a little of Kennys Vargas in action this weekend while lunching at a local Applebee's, and I liked what I saw.  A massive (6'5" 275lb) switch hitting who has a little trouble with the strikeout (8 in his last 5 games) but also can put a charge into the ball (337/369/537 with 23 RBIs in 23 games).  I am not sure what his defense looks like, and he is blocked at 1b by some guy wearing Joe Mauer's sideburns and stealing his paycheck (unless Mauer of Kennys moves to LF or DH, though I feel like you cant have more than 1 Kenny playing at a time out there), but Vargas is another player (like Danny Santana) that the Twins can use to try to encourage fans to not start hating the franchise while they lose 100 games a season.

SP Michael Pineda (#PineTAReda) - $2 - MBHB - Drop SP, RP Michael Wacha
This one stings a bit.  Wacha was one of those preseason favorites who ended up on all of my teams after I developed a man crush on his pitching during last year's stretch run and postseason.  If you would have told me at the beginning of the season that I would be dropping him for any reason, I would have punched you right in your whore mouth.  But, with injuries continuing to mount and Wacha being passed by Garrett Richards in the man crush category, he was the one who had to go to get healthy reinforcements in the fold.  St Louis is saying that Wacha will be back in September, but it will likely be too late to make a fantasy impact (though it could greatly impact the actually MLB playoff race).  Pineda, on the other hand, has finally come back from a mysterious injury that caused sticky brown goo to start oozing out of his skin in random places.  That had to be terrifying for him and his family.  Pineda was on the mound last night in KC and looked every bit the monster he was in 2011 (his only other season in the bigs) when he threw 171 innings and gave up only 133 hits, throwing mid 90s fastballs, low 90s cutters, and sliders and change ups in the mid 80s all with terrific movement. 

Be sure to check your email, as I sent out the keeper voting options.

Monday, August 25, 2014

GI Joe Kung Fu Grips

There are now 20 weeks in the books and here is how we stand:
Rank Team W-L-T Pct  Div GB OA GB Playoff
*1 Bob's Aters 135-88-17 0.598 - - CLINCHED
3 MBHB 122-106-12 0.533 15.5 15.5 +11
4 UCCMA 120-108-12 0.525 17.5 17.5 +8.5
2 LesMoles 119-114-7 0.51 - 21 +5.5
5 BySs 111-111-18 0.5 2.5 23.5 +3
6 Zattack 113-116-11 0.494 4 25 +1.5
7 Dust Bunnies 110-116-14 0.488 26.5 26.5 -1.5
8 MTMTAS 102-121-17 0.46 12 33 -8
9 Huckleberries 101-123-16 0.454 34.5 34.5 -9.5
10 KIODL 101-131-8 0.438 17.5 38.5 -13.5

Bob has clinched the first ever Tater Tot playoff spot (Spud?) and MBHB and UCCMA are sitting on solid ground in 3rd and 4th, respectively.  UCCMA has been on a huge run over the last 2 weeks, taking out Kyler's BySs in a beatdown and following it up with a bashing of the Hitless ones this week.  The only team hotter than Jim's right now is Tom's Molesters who have jumped from out of the playoffs to leading the race for the second bye week in only 2 weeks.  The BySs have gone from virtual playoff lock to fighting for their seasons to continue.  Zach has remained relatively consistent and is hanging in 6th place while Dusty has fallen from 4th place 2 weeks ago to on the outside looking in.

The matchup with the highest potential to alter the standings this week is the BySs vs LesMoles matchup.  The pairing gives Kyler a chance to reclaim the bye heading into the final week of the regular season but it also give Tom the chance to solidify his lead while potentially knocking Kyler into 7th place purgatory.  The other matchup featuring teams that would be in the playoffs if they started today, features MBHB and ZAttack.  A good showing from MBHB means that I can relax in the final week, but also likely means that Zach falls from 6th to 7th, depending on how Dusty's matchup with Merry Tyler's Moor Traveleing All Stars ends. 

Tyler and Kevin are not eliminated yet, but are super long shots and would need to basically put up double digit wins this week, Kevin against Bob and Tyler against Dusty.  John...well...sorry John, hopefully next year the injury bug doesnt jump up and bite you over and over and over again like it did this year.  If John somehow makes the playoffs, we will likely be telling our kid's kids about it 35 years from now as the greatest comeback in the history of Totdom.

One of the things that has struck me about looking at these standings is the average weekly record of the teams (its much easier to see with 20 weeks in the books).  As the top team in the league, Bob's ATers is averaging a 6.75 - 4.4 - 0.85 record per week while last place KIODL is averaging a 5.05-6.55-0.4 one.  There is less than a 2 win/loss difference between the top and bottom teams...meaning that this has been a specatularly balanced league and that anything can and will happen in any given week.  Now that I have said that, the Hitless Bastards will probably go out and lose 10-2 this week and I will somehow end up missing the playoffs entirely.





Week 20 Recaps - Drooling the Drool of Regret onto the Pillow of Remorse

I'm just gonna get it started:

Bob's ATers - 8
KIODL - 3
Tie - 1 (SB, 6)
The secret to Bob's success.
And with that...Bob clinched a playoff spot and is only 1 game away from clinching the 1st round bye week and top overall seed (and the non-existent home field advantage that comes with it.  Our fake teams are going to fake hate to have to fake travel to rural Iowa to fake face the ATers...).  Remember when I traded Jason Heyward to Bob and predicted that he would go off because he was now on /ob's team...well Heyward's 407/452/556 6R 7RBI week puts him amongst the top performers in the league for week 20...and takes away any doubt that I had that Bob is feeding his players performance enhancing drugs like tic-tacs.  Heyward, along with Jose Abreu (364/440/636 4R 5RBI), Anthony Rendon (304/448/391 7R 2RBI 1 SB) and Billy Hamilton's legs (4SB) propelled the ATer offense, though they won only 2 categories because of Edwin Encarnacion's 158/158/172 in his first week off the DL.  Normally you cant blame one player, but the categories were so close, that you really can in this case.  John didnt have a single Escalator Club player this week, but he did get solid contributions from nearly the entire lineup.  The highlights: Lucas Duda had 7R and 11RBI (and a 348/385/1000 slash) and Jacoby Ellsbury stole 4 bases and put up a 409/435/455 slash line.  On the mound, Bob's squad really took it to John's, winning all 6 categories in convincing fashion, in large part due to 2 of John's starters residing on the List 'O the Disabled and the other 3 starting pitchers being Johnny Cueto (4K 7.20/2.20), James Shields (1W 6K 3.00/1.67 1 QS) and Mark Buehrle (2K 4.26/1.42 1 QS).  Bob got double digit Ks from Chris Sale (15), Hisashi Iwakuma (12) and Jordan Zimmerman (10) as well as a dominant run from Aroldis Chapman (9K 0.00/0.25 1SV/H in 4 innings).


Les Moles - 9
MTMTAS - 2
Tie - 1 (QS, 6)
Tom is pumped LesMoles are on a roll and heading
towards a playoff berth.
The good times are finally rolling in Molesterville.  After a rough start to the season (and getting on the wrong end of some high scoring matchups for both teams), the schedule has been breaking friendly for Tom's crew.  Its hard not to get excited when you can dominate the hitting categories (winning 5) while starting players like Josh Donaldson (077/143/077 0R 0RBI) and Chase Utley (120/185/120 2R 3RBI 1SB) despite not having a single player hit over .318.  Joe Mauer (5R, 8RBI), Adrian Gonzalez (4R 6RBI), Ian Desmond (6R 6RBI 2SB) YoAnus (4R 7RBI) and swan song Ben Revere (308/357/308 4R 2RBI 3SB) provided a balanced attack in the win.  Just to be clear...Ben Revere knocked in 2 runs this week bringing his season total (119 games, 479 plate appearances) to 15.  He also has 11 walks, in case you were wondering.  I am fairly confident that a hyena wearing a cowboy hat (or a Tom wearing a cow on his head while having a random girl eating his shoulder and soul) could successful work roughly 11 walks in 479 plate appearances.  The reason Tom was able to win despite nothing spectacular on offense was that Tyler had even less, bottoming out with Allen Craig (200/333/300 0R 0RBI) and a YANGER ZONE 000/000/000 from supposed uber-prospect Gregory Polanco, who was optioned to AAA this morning.  On the mound, the highlight for MTMTAS was getting 6 wins from 6 different pitchers and getting 11Ks from Ervin Santana across a pair of starts.  Tom, once again, got his typical stellar pitching, winning 5 categories behind David Price (9K 0.00/0.13 1QS), John Lester (7K 1.29/0.86 1QS), Jake Arrieta (1W 5K 1.29/0.71 1QS), John Lackey (7K 3.00/0.83 1QS) and our old friend Houston pitcher Dallas Kuechel (5K 3.38/0.88 1QS).  Once upon a time, I had that many pitchers on my team that were not on the DL, let alone having that many pitchers have good weeks at once.


UCCMA - 8
MBHB - 3
Tie - 1 (SV/H, 3)

This matchup was actually much closer than the 8-3-1 final would indicate, as many of the matchups were decided by a very small margin.  But, as they say, close only counts in horseshoes, hand gernades and nuclear missles.  Uncle Jimmy got an Escalator Club week from Buster Posey (409/435/818 5R 3RBI), 6R and a .500 OBP from Freddie Freeman, and a 381/536/476 3R 6RBI week from TMGS to lead the way on offense.  The Hitless Bastards had a Escalator Club performances from Anthony Rizzo (346/414/731 3R 4RBI 1SB - so maybe I cant be too mad about Heyward) and Jayson Werth (423/484/615 5R 7RBI 2SB) as well as a monster ratio week from Oscar Taveras (409/458/455), but couldnt overcome Xander Bogaerts' 071/235/071.  I still believe that Bogaerts will be a stud someday...but it is looking that like day is going to be in 2015 or beyond.  On the mound, UCCMA took 4 categories behind Lance Lynn (1W 5K 0.00/0.86 1QS), Tyson Ross (8K 2.25/0.75 1QS) and 13 Ks from Max Scherzer, despite a couple of uncharacteristicly poor outings from the reigning Cy Young winner.  MBHB could have changed their name to MBPB this week as, other than MadBum (1W 12K 3.86/1.14 1 QS) and Rick Porcello (1W 4K 0.00/0.33 1QS) there wasnt a lot to like.  Garrett Richards' injury and Jesse Hahn's demotion at the beginning of the week left MBHB very shorthanded and with little room for error. Cole Hamels bad start combined with implosions from Tyler Clippard and Casey Janssen made it so that Jim could have started 6 different straw scarecrows and he probably would have won the pitching categories...and his guys are better than straw scarecrows.


BySs - 6
ZAttack - 5
Tie - 1 (SB, 1)

Kyler and Zach were roommates until a couple months ago, so the matchup this week, while it was still big because they talk and hangout a lot, wasnt as big as it could have been when they were living together and could have wagered things like taking out the garbage, doing the dishes, buying the beer, cleaning the toilet or any other random thing that you could have bet on with your roomie.  Cest la vie.  Kyler was able to win this matchup by taking 3 of the hitting categories and splitting a 4th.  Daniel Murphy (381/435/429 4R 2RBI), Kung Fu Pandoval (417/407/542 1R 4RBI) and Justin Upton 333/382/600 4R 11RBI) led the way for the Superstars, who were able to overcome a 111/238/111 1R 0RBI 1SB line from Brett Garnder and a 111/200/111 3R 0RBI 0SB line from ManBearPuig.  Zach got craptastic weeks from Salvador Perez (176/176/235), How Many Altuves (217/308/217) and the free falling Nelson Cruz (143/250/571) that somehow pulled down the most insane hitting week that this league has yet seen.  David Ortiz only had 4 runs and a pair of RBI, but managed to go Full David Ortiz World Series Mode in putting up a 647/769/1118 line.  None of that is a typo.  I seriously cannot even fathom someone putting up a 1.887 OPS over an entire week in anything other than video games.  And I repeat, his team lost more hitting categories than they won (though they did win OBP and SLG, thanks entirely to that madness).  Of course, Ortiz is out tonight after getting hit by a pitch Saturday and fouling another off his foot yesterday.  On the pitching side, the teams split 3 wins apiece behind a number of spectacular performances (Clayton Kershaw, Mike Minor, Danny Duffy, Alex Cobb, to name a few).  But it is the terrible ones we are going to focus on.  First, for Zach, Jeff Samardzija had his worst outing of the year, giving up 7 runs to the Mets and finishing the week with 3K and a 17.18/2.45 ratio.  Its a tough turn, but the Shark should bounce back.  For Kyler, Koji Uehara finished the week with 2Ks and 32.40/4.80 ratios.  Uehara gave up 6 runs this week, including 5 in 2/3rds of an inning on Friday against the Mariners.  To put that in perspective, Uehara gave up 9 runs in ALL OF 2013 (74 innings).  He has now given up 15 earned runs this season, which is almost as many as he gave up in 2012 and 2013 combined (16) and more than he has given up in any season since his 2009 rookie season when he was a starting pitcher with Baltimore.  Koji Uehara giving up 5 runs in a single game is like seeing Hallie's Comet while being struck by lightning during a 5.0+ magnitude earthquake while standing in rural North Dakota between 12:30 and 12:45 in the afternoon.

Week 20 MSSSMRMoW -


Dusty and Kevin's  match up is week 20's Mike Shaw
Subaru Super Mo Replay Matchup of the Week.

With the playoffs coming up, I wanted to feature a match that had playoff implications, but was also a tight game and had lots of different things that I could focus on.  Huckleberries match up with the Dust Bunnies checks off all of those boxes (the playoff implications one needs to be stretched a little, but Dusty is fighting for the final playoff spot, so...Judges?   YES!  It qualifies!).  As a 5-4 final score implies, it was a very tight game, and as you'll see when we play bottom 5/top 5, there were plenty of things to focus on.

Team R RBI SB AVG OBP SLG W K ERA WHIP QS SV+H Score
Dusty's Team 31 25 2 0.238 0.311 0.419 4 41 4.20 1.33 3 6 4
TBD 30 36 2 0.328 0.379 0.515 2 41 2.70 1.36 3 5 5

Before we get started, the Shaw this week was very nearly a sonnet devoted to the excellence or David Ortiz because, damn, that slash line would impregnate women everywhere if slash lines could impregnate women (its like the Antonio Cromartie of slash lines).  I found this, so I have to put it up somewhere.  Antonio was a busy busy man in 2010 and 2011, fathering 7 children by 6 different women in those 2 years alone.  The final tally (well...to date tally might be a better description) - 10 children by 8 different woman in 6 different states in 7 years.



Anyways, back to bottom 5, top 5.

Bottom 5-
5- Kurt Suzuki - C - Huckleberries - 095/174/095 0R 2RBI 0SB
Suzuki has been solid all year for the Twinks and for Kevin as his 295/357/384 slash line shows.  A bump in the road will happen from time to time, especially in this weekly format and especially for a catcher towards the end of the season.  Suzuki is on pace to catch more innings than he has since he was Oakland's starting catcher back from 2008 through 2011.
4- Chris Davis - 1b - Dust Bunnies - 091/130/136 1R 2RBI 0SB
It actually does get worse from here, though I am not sure how.  Unlike Suzuki, Davis has not been solid all year for the Orioles.  In fact, I cannot believe that Davis and his 189/289/385 slash line havent been demoted to bench duty for long stretches of the season.  Now with Manny Machado out, Davis is manning the hot corner and has become a pivotal piece of Baltimore's playoff hopes.  Sorry Baltimore, that playoff dream might be as realistic as Dusty's.
3- Rex Brothers - RP - Dust Bunnies - 1 inning. 3ER, 4 baserunners 2 Ks (27.00/4.00)
Brothers through 1 inning across 2 appearances, so he isnt higher because his impact wasnt that great  on the team's ratios.  And...hes a relief pitcher named Rex Brothers.  For some reason, when I hear his name I always think that he is like a lost member of the Walker Bros. Pancake House Empire, even through it makes absolutely no sense.
2- Tiny Tim Lincecum - SP - Dust Bunnies - 2.2 innings 4ER, 10 baserunners 2Ks (13.50/3.75)
Lincecum's Jeckyl and Hyde season continues.  Its just another bump in the road on Timmy's journey from multiple Cy Young award winner to closer whose stats most resemble Brad Lidge's after Albert Pujols murdered his confidence.
1- Francisco Liriano - SP - Dust Bunnies - 4 innings 7ER, 13 baserunners 4Ks (15.75/3.25)
Somehow, Liriano continues to be employed to try to get people out in professional baseball games. Actually...he might be more Jeckyl and Hyde than Lincecum, as Liriano had turned in 5 straight quality starts (and the start before that went 5 shutout innings) striking out as many as 11 in a single game.   His season record is now at 3-10 though he probably isnt that bad, and he is still striking out more than a batter an inning.  Even still, I wouldnt want to pin my playoff hopes on both Liriano and Lincecum, but, we all know that Dusty fears changing his team.

Top 5-
5- Josh Hamilton - OF - Huckleberries - 316/360/737 5R 8RBI
Last night Jim texted me to ask how it is possible that Josh Hamilton is both so awesome and so terrible at the same time.  Thats all I need to write about that.
4- Ian Kinsler - 2b - Dust Bunnies - 281/324/469 9R 5RBI 2 SB
Volume of runs over quality of AVG and OBP.
3- Adrian Beltre - 3b - Huckleberries - 526/571/684 3R 2RBI
2- Victor Martinez - 1b - Huckleberries - 357/455/607 6R 11RBI
Has there been a better pickup this year than VMart?  I think we would be hard pressed to find one as Martinez has hit 322/401/518 with 41R and 50RBI in 245 ABs since joining the Kilmers.
1- Danny Santana - 2b/ss/OF - Huckleberries - 378/410/622 7R 6RBI 1 SB
Is there a better story for Twins fans in this lost season than Danny Santana?  At the beginning of the year he wasnt even an afterthought (a never-thought?) and he has come on to show the Twinks that he could be a viable centerfielder or backup SS (I am not sure you want him starting at SS over an entire season...maybe, but I would need to see more than what I have seen from him) on a winning team.  With Aaron Hicks flopping for a second straight year and Byron Buxton's arrival likely delayed by spending most of the year on the DL (and losing precious at bats), having a player like Santana step up gives the Twins organization and fans something to take away from what has otherwise been a lost year (I will also give Phil Hughes a hat tip here.  He has been great as well and should be a decent rotation piece for the next couple of years...if he isnt traded for prospects at some point.)






















Friday, August 22, 2014

Week 19 ass hDLes - The knee that launched a thousand tears

I have been doing a lot of prep work for the upcoming fantasy football draft season.  Strangely, I do a lot more research on the upcoming football season than I do when the baseball season rolls around.  Maybe that's because I have never had a reason to prep for baseball the way I do for football because there is always money involved in the football leagues that I play in...and I am guessing that I will be overly researched when the Tat Tot 2.0 draft rolls around next March (just a reminder about that...Tater Tot 2.0 draft will be a live event at my house in the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.  I believe that my wife is taking the kiddies out to Nana and Grandpa's place, so there will be plenty of hijinks Friday night for those who want to come and stay the weekend followed by boys doing silly things, video games, NCAA basketball and drafting in some order on Saturday, then more silly things, a bit more NCAA basketball and cleaning up before I boot whoever is left out on Sunday.  Maybe you can't tell, but I am already looking forward to this.  I havent figured out what to do if someone cant make the draft on Saturday, which is why I am putting this out there this far in advance.  Hopefully there is more than enough time to make/change plans and/or keep this weekend open.).  In football, I often try to come up with some unique formula that does the player rankings so that I am looking at a slightly different group of players than everyone else.  It usually works out and my teams are generally competitive.  What usually ends up happening is that I usually find 1 player who, for some reason, is either vastly overrated by my rudimentary formula or vastly underrated by the Yahoo and ESPN draft list...and that player ends up on ALL of my teams and I end up taking him in every single mock draft that I do.  This year, that has been made 2048378 times worse thanks to this.  It is a mock draft simulator.  If you hit the start over button, you can alter the settings, the roster sizes, the league size and set which pick you want.  Then it will analyze your roster against the rest of the league to see where you stack up in the projections.  There is a pay version, but this basic one is free.  You're welcome.  And I am sorry to your jobs/girlfriends/wives/children who you will see less over the next couple of weeks.
Anyways, back to the "Mine" player.  Remember in Finding Nemo, how all the seagulls think that whatever they see is theirs?  That is how I inevitably end up feeling about the player I was describing above.  For example, for some silly reason, over the past 4 or 5 years I have continuously end up with players like Kenny Britt and Andre Brown on my teams, depending on the year.  Now...Britt straight up sucks.  He often either isnt healthy or good enough to play, but he keeps popping up on my teams.  Brown is at least useful when he isnt broken, though it will be tough to have him this year seeing as how he isnt currently employed.  I have had a few decent calls as well, guys like Cecil Shorts a couple years ago.  I'm not gonna share who my guys are for this year, since many of us are playing in the horribly titled "Awesome Guys League" (good job Kyler.  I dont really need the esteem boost, but it is a nice feeling to, every time I log in to ESPN, see that I am one of the few, the proud, the Awesome Guys), but there are a couple who have again emerged from my magical (read: made up) list as targets and more will emerge as waiver pickups as the season gets underway.  I have found a similar phenomenon in baseball, only since I didnt prep much for the draft, it has been based on the performance of certain players on my team.  I know that a few of the rest of you have had a similar experience (Jimmy...TMGS.  Kyler...ManBearPuig).  Certain guys, like Adam Ottavino (until he imploded and stopped getting people out) have started popping up on my ESPN teams. The funny thing (or maybe its normal, I dont know.  I am not a normal person, so I have very little frame of reference for what constitutes normal) is that in football, I dont find myself getting attached to the players throughout the year.  In baseball...I have gotten very attached to them.  When I had to cut Ottavino because he performance was so far below replacement level that he needed a periscope on top of a periscope on top of the Sears (I refuse to call it Willis) Tower, I struggled to push the add button...and then I poured one out for my departed homie the next time I took a drink of water (its fantasy baseball...I'm not wasting beer).
So, suffice to say that on Tuesday night I was more than a little distraught when the news reports (and accompanying text message from Jim) about Garrett Richards and his knee implosion starting rolling in.  Before the season, I could not have told you a single thing about Garrett Richards other than he was a pitcher and he was on the Angles (I maybe could have told you he was mediocre last year).  When I heard the news (I refuse to watch the video), I actually felt empathy towards him; the first through I had was "what would I do if I were a MLB player enjoying a huge breakthrough season and securing myself many millions of dollars and it was cut short doing something that I have done literally several hundred times before?"  My next thought was, "Fuck, my fantasy team is pretty much boned even if I do make the playoffs", but that is not the important part.  Through having him on my fantasy team, I have become a Garrett Richards fan.  It's hard to explain.  I have Madison Bumgarner on my team (yeah MadBum) and I want him to do well so that his good performance helps my fake team.  I now have Anthony Rizzo, and I want him to do well because his good performance helps both my fake team and my real life favorite team.  I want Richards to do well because I want him to do well.  I admire the things that he is able to make a baseball do and that he seems like a generally decent person who is living out the best case scenario of his wildest dream (well...until Tuesday night).  Yeah, it helps my fake team and he generally doesnt play against my favorite team, but if he wasnt on my team and he was throwing against the Cubbies every day, I would still probably want him to do well.  I feel weird writing that, because its kinda "Hand that Rocks the Cradle"-ish, but it's true.  Were he to some how end up on the Cubs, I probably would have to go against every fiber of my being and buy an MLB shersey (though, if I can figure out how to make a MBHB shersey, I am totally doing it...I may end up with a couple of them - Richards 43, Springer 10 Joc Pederson - if he ever gets called up to LA).  Luckily, the Angels wouldnt trade him right now for anything short of Kris Bryant and Addison Russell and Jed Hoyer/Theo Epstein arent moving either of those two guys. So, with a heavy heart:

SP.RP Garrett Richards - MBHB - Destroyed Patellar Tendon - out 6 - 9 months
Richards has been one of the best pitchers in the AL this year, posting a 13-4 record with a 2.61 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 164 strikeouts in 168 2/3 innings.  Opponents are hitting .201 against his with only 5 HRs.  He has the 10th highest WAR amonst pitchers according to B-R.com and is leading the league in lowest HR against per 9 innings (0.26) and also wild pitches (22!!!!).  He is all over the B-R leader page, even in some things that you would need a PhD to explain.  His loss to both the Angels and to MBHB is measurable (I was going to say immeasureable, but turns out baseball keeps stats on things) and mammoth.  For the Angels, it may well mean the difference between a division title and a wild card berth, which they would then need to win without their best pitcher.  For the Hitless Bastards, it means another week with only 4 SPs in what are the most critical weeks of the season.  Looking forward, the injury puts in doubt Richards status as a keeper.  For $4, a healthy Richards is a no brainer.  But if he is on the long end of the rehab schedule, he will not be ready until mid May 2015, and may or may not be back to full strength...and knee injuries to pitchers who throw hard and generate a lot of torque on their body tend to linger and flare up from time to time.  The list of starting pitchers who have catastrophic knee injuries and come back as strong as they were before is not terribly long (I cannot think of any off the top of my head), though the list of pitchers with catastrophic knee injuries is not terribly long either. 

That brings me to my next point...dont smoke crack when do we want to have keepers due?  I will send out an email to the league with a few options (at the end of this season, before spring training, 1 week before the draft, at the draft) and majority will rule the day. 

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Week 20 Waivers - Hello Again Mr. Kate Upton

Breaking up with a player is often like breaking up with a significant other.  Sometimes when a player leaves, he leaves us for good (Jedd Jerko).  Sometimes he is just taking a break (Garrett Richards).  Sometimes its on again, off again, on again, off again (like Kold Calhoun).  Yet other times, he is just waiting for his savior to come along and pick him up off the waiver wire purgatory line and make him forget the old owner that so callously threw him to the wolves.


SP Justin Verlander - $7 - KIODL - Drop RP Joakim Soria
John went on a DL purge this week, and started with Soria, who has been on the DL since August 10th with an oblique strain and isnt expected back until the calendar flips to September.  Even when healthy, Soria is an unexciting player who is behind Joe Nathan (and maybe Joba Chamberlain - who ever thought that sentence would be typed without any irony) for saves, and has been atrocious (5 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings) since moving to Detriot from Texas.  Nathan has also been terrible since moving from Texas to Detroit.  Maybe there is something in the water in the D that makes it so anyone who drank the water in Texas for more than a year, then tries to drink the water in Detroit forgets how to get professional hitters out.  That explaination makes as much sense as any other.  For the pick up, Verlander is a strange case.  On one hand, he is Justin Verlander...he of the AL Cy Young and MVP awards, of the 8.3K/9 inning career K rate, he of the 10 year $219,000,000 (it looks so much more impressive when you type out the zeros) contract, he of the dumping ice cold water on Kate Upton in a white shirt for all the world to see. <<side note - WTF is going on with the ICE BUCKET challenges?  I'm not going to lie, I am not hip.   I am not down with what the kids are doing these days.  I dont have the 411.  I am definitely not getting jiggy with no ice bucket, no matter how cool the payoff is.  My momma didnt raise no fool. (bonus points to anyone who picks up the reference here, leave it in the comments).  I mean, I cannot look at Facebook on my phone, which happens roughly 1 or maybe 2 times per day, without seeing 18 different people challenging everyone and their brothers to do this thing.  Some people have been challenged 3 and 4 times each.  Now, it seems to me, and I could be wrong, that the way this works is that someone challenges you, and if you do it, great, but if you dont, you have to donate some amount of money to charity.  Let me get this straight...I can either donate money, or dump something cold on myself?  Why are these the only two options? What happens if I dont do either?  Public ridicule on my Facebook?  Does Facebook shut my account down if I dont comply within 2.75 days?  I get that donating to some charity is a great idea, and I am all for anything that gets people to be more aware of others who may be in more need.  On that level, this challenge crap is acheiving great success, and I guess that as long as people are into it, its not hurting anything.  But really?  This is what we are using our technology and our time to do?>> <<Side note #2, the revenge of the side note - I heard an ad on the radio for an event that would be associated with Mental Health awareness month or day or something...I wasnt paying that close attention at that point.  This is a great idea.  Mental Health is one of the least understood parts of the human experience, yet it affects so many either directly or indirectly.  I probably wasnt going to go, but I can still provide moral support from afar.  Then the ad mentioned that it was called a "Cut-A-Thon."  Pump the brakes...we need to put this train on hold.  Someone thought that calling a mental health awareness event a Cut-A-Thon is a good idea?  They are cutting off hair to raise money, so its not like they are slitting wrists or anything, but cutting is a serious issue amongst people with mental health problems.  I dont know if they were trying to be cute with the name or if they are just plain ignorant to what it sounds like they are planning to do.>>> Sorry for the longest rant ever, Ill try to make the next one longer.  Back to Verlander...on the other hand he is carrying an ugly 4.76/1.42 ERA/WHIP combo that looks remarkably similar to the 4.84/1.40 combo he put up in 2008, the season before he went on his mammoth 4 season run that made him successful enough to land Kate Upton as a girlfriend.  If you look at the stats, you can almost see a smooth path into his monster 2011 season and a smooth path out of it.  Maybe he built up to his peak, hit it and is now on his way back down.  Maybe its just a blip.  Either way, for someone with Verlander's pedigree, $7 is a worthy claim.

1b/OF Michael Cuddyer - $5 - Les Moles - drop OF Ben Revere
Tom moves from one ex-Twin to another.  Cuddy was out for 3 months, then promptly hit for the cycle in the second game of a double header on his first day back in the bigs.  Too bad the Rockies are so far out of contention that no one noticed.  Cuddy will be a solid play in everything in our game other than SBs, which is funny because that is the primary contribution that Revere made, though Paul's distant nephew, twice removed has surprised everyone by hitting a completely respectable .315 so far this year.  The knock on Revere is that he absolutely destroys your RBI (he has 13 this year...Corey Dickerson had 11 last week) and SLG% categories because he literally would have trouble hitting a ball out of the park where they play the Little League World Series.  That's right, I did just say that some 12 year olds have more power than Ben Revere.  None of them can make the ridiculous catches that he makes, but it would be awesome if, just once, when Revere came to bat, the announcers talked about his favorite food or what he wanted to be when he grows up.

SP/RP Matt Shoemaker - $5 - KIODL - drop 3b/OF Ryan Zimmerman
The Purge continues.  Its not THE PURGE, I pretty much refuse to watch that movie because it hits on so so so so so many of my completely irrational phobia (or so I have been lead to believe), but if you are on the DL and you are on John's team and not Japanese...notice has been served.  I was a little surprised by this, seeing as how Zimmerman is a perennial All Star and wouldnt be a bad piece to build a team around, but then I saw that there still isnt a time table for him to resume baseball activities...and he is more than a lot injury prone.  Shoemaker kind of came out of nowhere this season to be a dependable rotational fill in for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, California, USA, Earth.  With the Angels in a playoff hunt and 6 legitimate starters, either Shoemaker or Tyler Skaggs will be the odd man out.  Either way, the maker of the shoes should be a useful piece down the stretch and could be an intriguing keeper based on what the Angels plans are for him in the future.

1b/OF Chris Carter - $2 - MBHB - drop SP Archie Bradley
Archie, the non comic book version, is currently the #11 prospect in all of baseball according to MLB.com, and a report floated this weekend that he will likely be called up in September as the Snakes move to a 6 man rotation to limit the innings of Bradley and a couple other young starters.  So...why drop him? Because my team needs hitting...like 4 weeks ago.  And the one thing that Chris Carter can do is catch touchdowns hit.  Carter is the #1 overall player in the Yahoo! game over the past 30 days, posting a 324/372/686 line with 22R 29RBI 2SB and he even rescued a kitten who was sitting too close to where Ernesto Frieri was playing catch.  Since Paul Goldschmidt was broken (and who I am kidding, long before that), the Hitless Bastards have needed a consistent bat.  Carter isnt consistent in the least (despite that huge run, he is still hitting .233 on the season), but at least he's a bat.

SP Zack Wheeler - $1 - ZAttack - drop 1b Brandon Belt
Belt is a sad story.  He stormed out of the gate with 5 HRs in the team's first 8 games, before hitting a bit of a mini slump.  Then he got his head knocked and hit the DL for nearly 2 months with concussion symptoms.  He came off the DL in early July, but was not the same player, really struggled and went back on the DL due to further concussion like symptoms and was out for another 2 weeks.  He returned again and was playing well for the 5 games he was active before the head issues popped back up again.  Hopefully the Giants do the right thing and hold him out the rest of the year so that the kid can get his head right and continue his career fresh in 2015.  Wheeler...Wheeler was supposed to be the Sundance Kid to Matt Harvey's Butch Cassidy, but Harvey has been out all season and Wheeler started off throwing like...well...just A Kid.  That has all turned around over his last 9 starts (all quality starts).  Since June 30th, Wheeler is 5-0 with a 2.02 ERA with 54 strikeouts and he hasnt allowed more than 3 runs in any start.  He is like the anti-Shelby Miller, if you will.  Wheeler's prospect hype, plus his recent performance and now miniscule price tag make him an intriguing keeper for the Zach Attack.  Maybe he can replace AC Slater.

SP Brandon McCarthy - $1 - Huckleberries - drop SP Jason Hammel
If only Billy Beane could cut ties with Hammel as easily as Kevin has done, I am sure that he would. Since coming over to the A's, Hammel has made 7 starts, is 1-5 with a 7.16 ERA has 21 strikeouts in 32 innings pitched and has allowed an incredible 60 baserunners (1.875 WHIP).  Somehow, he still has a job in the "best starting rotation" in the league.  I think his inclusion makes it pretty much impossible for anyone to realistically call them the best rotation in the AL.  Where Hammel was undone by his trade, McCarthy seems to have been invigorated by his move from the DBacks to the House Adjacent to the House That Ruth Built but We Tore Down.    Like Hammel, McCarthy has made 7 starts in his new home, totalling 43 innings with a 2.30 ERA and 1.28 WHIP and 43 strikeouts.  Clearly Hammel is going in the wrong direction and McCarthy is trending in the right one.

RP Brad Boxberger - $1 - MBHB - drop SP Jesse Hahn
First off...his name is Boxberger.  Imagine if you will...Joe Madden is sitting in the dugout talking to Don Zimmer's ghost and he says, "Ghost Zim, after the game we should grill out.  We need to stop by the Publix and pick up a box of burgers.  Shit...get Boxberger in the game, we need this to be done stat."  And Boxberger and his 1.87ERA, 0.79WHIP and 84Ks in 53 innings stroll in and throw laser beams from his eyes that cause batters to kneel before him and walk back to the dugout without even trying to swing.  I know none of that makes any sense, but I dont care.  It might be my favorite food last name since someone told Nick Bierbrodt (pronounced Beer-Brot) to stop showing up at a baseball field because, as it turned out, he was really terrible at baseball.  Hahn has been solid this year, but is up against an innings cap and will likely be used less and less as the season winds down.  For a team in the playoff hunt, less starts = bad idea.

SP Wily Peralta - $5 - KIODL - drop SP Shomo-zay Shmurnandez
This, kids, is what it looks like when a lefty throws a nastified
circle change.
This is the last of the DL purges from John...for this week.  Peralta has an impressive 15 wins on the season and has a legitimate shot to become only the 4th Brewer pitcher to win 20 games in a single season (Mike Caldwell won 22 in 1978, Jim Colburn won 20 in 1973 and Teddy Higuera won 20 in 1986...and anytime I can get Teddy Higuera into a post, you're damn right I am going to do it).  He has a solid 3.32 ERA, but despite his ridiculously good "stuff" only has 116 strikeouts in 157 innings and a WHIP of 1.28.  I think, in this case, the numbers are misleading and the "stuff" indicates that improvements in the WHIP and K stats are coming...it might not be til next year, but a guy who throws that hard and has that much movement will miss more bats eventually.  Now, I am not sure who this Shomo-zay Shmurnandez is, but he is on the DL and no one should ever want to pick him up again.  Like, I am pretty sure he will never pitch in the big leagues...not even as a ceremonial first pitch.  This is definitely not the player that, earlier in the year, I called the best pitcher in the NL not named Clayton Kershaw.  I dont know what you are talking about. Just trust me, dont try to bid on him.