Monday, July 28, 2014

Redemption is spelled R-O-N

There is a point in the greatest movie ever made, where the male protagonist has gone through a series of life altering, world-view shattering and in everyway completely depressing moments that force him to come out on the other side a completely changed person who, as it turns out, is better than he ever was before.  In the movie, his pig-headedness (either by nature or by desire) about gender equality amidst a group of Panther spraying, lamp loving, trident throwing bro-ons (its bros mixed with morons...use it, love it) eventually gives way to the realization that not only can a woman do his job as well as he can, but that she can do it better than he can (obviously with a trip to Pleasure Town, a little jazz flute and a miniature Buddha covered in hair aiding him on his journey).  Once he accepts that she is better than he is, he is able to regain his lost composure, deliver on the big news story and move into the next phase of their lives together as partners.  Obviously Anchorman lets this fairly enlightened piece of the story run as a subtext to the larger goal of being stupid and sophomoric in the most awesome of ways, otherwise there wouldnt be a character who identifies himself by saying "Years later, a doctor will tell me that I have an I.Q. of 48 and am what some people call mentally retarded" and the movie would never have been nearly as popular (or fantastic) as it has become.
You might think that this seems like a strange corollary to draw to something involving fantasy baseball, but youd be wrong and I would probably make fun of you for it by scoffing in your general direction.  Baseball players are, almost to a fault, overly confident about their own abilities.  If they werent, they wouldnt really last as baseball players very long.  How long do you think Yasiel Puig would last if he were constantly worried that a ball thrown at 95 MPH was going to blow past him?  Instead, he thinks that every ball thrown over the plate at 95 MPH is going to end up in the overly large baseball glove of some guy in the left field bleachers and then in that fan's den where the fan will tell stories about how he caught a Yasiel Puig missle that almost took his hand off when he tried to catch it.  It is just how baseball players are wired.  So when teams do the new en vogue thing and shift all of their infielders to one side of the diamond, baseball players tend to think "Fuck them, I am going to hit it through there anyways."  I know...I used to be one.  I was such a pull hitter that, even in high school, teams would occasionally put the second baseman almost behind second base.  Had I been smart, I would have learned to hit the ball hard the other way...but I wasnt.  I pulled everything out of spite, like I was dragging a dollar down the street in front of a homeless guy and no doubt was worse off because of it.  Even now playing slow pitch softball, a team could probably put 7 fielders on the left field side of second base and I would flip them off and still try to hit it onto some sliver of green space in left field because...dammit how dare they and I am better than those stinkin fuckers.
Enter Carlos Santana (solo edition).  Santana has been largely derided this season for his abysmal plate performance.  Entering last week, he was hitting 204/348/380 with 40 runs and 40 RBIs.  Much of it can be attributed to defense's employing an aggressive shift philosophy against him.  An excellent artice over at the Wahoosonfirst Blog (thanks for the link Uncle Jimmy) notes that Santana has an increased walk rate, a decreased rate of swinging at pitches outside the zone, a slight uptick in isolated power (SLG-AVG), but similar ground ball/fly ball stats and a much lower batting average on balls in play.  Basically, Santana is trying to hit the ball through the teeth of the shift this season.  There are a couple of ways that a Major Leaguer can deal with it.  One is to learn to hit the ball the other way.  For someone who has an amazing ability to hit the ball the other way ingrained into them, like say Miguel Cabrera, this is a quick fix.  But players like Miggy arent seeing shifts.  For someone like Adam Dunn, who has been pulling the ball the majority of time since they were a 7 year old playing tee ball, this is not always an easy thing to pick up. 
The second option is to go all Jose Bautista and start hitting moon shots to the pull side and taking every pitch that makes it impossible to do so.  Walks go up, strikeouts go up, HRs go up...but the shift has a much smaller effect.  Carlos Santana choose the second option this week to the tune of 15 for 27 with 6 walks, 6 HRs (5 in the last 3 games), 8 runs scored, 10 RBIs, a 556/636/1333 slash line and a stolen base thrown in for fun.  In all, he raised his season line to 232/371/456.  It was the single greatest week by a player so far (Jose Altuve's 10 steals in week 13 are close)...and he was found on the waiver wire for $3.  I am not sure that option 2 is always the best option, and Santana will have to make a change to his approach eventually because he is not a Jose Bautista caliber player, but for at least one week, he was the player that everyone expected to get on draft day...the switch hitting on base machine who hits bombs and carries catcher eligibility without ever actually catching.   I am convinced that none of us know what we are doing...or that it is impossible to know what is going on in fantasy baseball.

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